Progression
Two groups of comparable sluggers. One aged gracefully, the other fell off. The question is which shape Alonso's line is making.
The comparison
- Lasted (Cruz, Ortiz, Konerko, Thomas and 3 more)
- Collapsed (Howard, Davis, Abreu and 4 more)
- Alonso (actual)
The red group was already bending down by 31. Alonso’s line bent up. Ages 24 to 29 are drawn from only part of the sample and are shown provisionally.
Dashed segments and hollow markers are provisional: either a partial-sample composite or a partial season.
The collapsed line stops at 36 and the lasted line at 37, because past those ages the remaining sample is too small to composite. A line ending is the sample running out, not a player falling off a cliff.
Aligned by MLB mileage rather than birthday. The collapsed group broke down in career seasons 7 to 9 regardless of when they debuted. Alonso posted two of his best seasons in years 7 and 8.
Dashed segments and hollow markers are provisional: either a partial-sample composite or a partial season.
Both lines stop at season 10 for the same reason: not enough of the sample played that long to composite fairly.
Alonso reaches 31 with eight seasons and more than a thousand games of wear, which is more than the late bloomers carried at the same age. He also just posted two of his best seasons in career years 7 and 8, which is the opposite of the collapsed group’s pattern.
Show the data as tables
| Calendar age | Lasted | Collapsed | Alonso | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 120 | 115 | 143 | partial group sample |
| 25 | 126 | 122 | 118 | partial group sample |
| 26 | 132 | 128 | 133 | partial group sample |
| 27 | 138 | 130 | 143 | partial group sample |
| 28 | 140 | 131 | 120 | partial group sample |
| 29 | 141 | 130 | 121 | partial group sample |
| 30 | 142 | 128 | 141 | |
| 31 | 140 | 116 | 140 | partial season |
| 32 | 137 | 100 | not yet played | |
| 33 | 140 | 92 | not yet played | |
| 34 | 133 | 84 | not yet played | |
| 35 | 128 | 72 | not yet played | |
| 36 | 124 | 60 | not yet played | |
| 37 | 112 | no sample | not yet played |
The collapsed line stops at 36 and the lasted line at 37, because past those ages the remaining sample is too small to composite. A line ending is the sample running out, not a player falling off a cliff.
| Career season | Lasted | Collapsed | Alonso | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 118 | 122 | 143 | |
| 2 | 124 | 130 | 118 | |
| 3 | 130 | 134 | 133 | |
| 4 | 135 | 132 | 143 | |
| 5 | 139 | 126 | 120 | |
| 6 | 141 | 116 | 121 | |
| 7 | 139 | 104 | 141 | |
| 8 | 137 | 92 | 140 | partial season |
| 9 | 134 | 78 | not yet played | |
| 10 | 130 | 64 | not yet played |
Both lines stop at season 10 for the same reason: not enough of the sample played that long to composite fairly.
Where he sits between those two curves is not just illustration. It is one of the two evidence terms that move the scenario odds on The Contract, and the reasoning is on The Formulas.
Signal by signal, over time
Not yet. The log holds 1 snapshot, taken , and a per-signal line needs at least 3 before it shows movement rather than a dot. A single point drawn as a line would imply a trend nobody has observed, which is the sort of thing this site exists to catch. These appear on their own as the log grows.
The current reading is on the verdict, and what separated the two groups is on the evidence.